Dose/Exposure‐Response Modeling to Support Dosing Recommendation for Phase III Development of Baricitinib in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

Baricitinib is an oral inhibitor of Janus kinases (JAKs), selective for JAK1 and 2. It demonstrated dose-dependent efficacy in patients with moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a phase IIb study up to 24 weeks. Population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PopPK/PD) models were developed to characterize concentration-time profiles and dose/exposure-response (D/E-R) relationships for the key efficacy (proportion of patients achieving American College of Rheumatology 20%, 50%, or 70% response rate) and safety endpoints (incidence of anemia) for the phase IIb study. The modeling suggested that 4 mg q.d. was likely to offer the optimum risk/benefit balance, whereas 2 mg q.d. had the potential for adequate efficacy. In addition, at the same total daily dose, a twice-daily regimen is not expected to provide an advantage over q.d. dosing for the efficacy or safety endpoints. The model-based simulations formed the rationale for key aspects of dosing, such as dose levels and dosing frequency for phase III development.